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Highest level of education attained, by employment status (numbers in 000’s).
Table source: Compiled from StatsSA Labour Force Survey, 2019
unemployment, and inequality add fur- ther layers of complexity to the issue. In the Futures of Work study, which was commissioned by the National Economic Development and Labour Council (Nedlac), various methods were used to triangulate the research which aimed at describing the futures of work in South Africa towards 2030. This project aimed to gain insights by focusing on a sectoral analysis, the potential impact of skills development and emerging trends.
General environmental context
A number of global trends are influenc- ing the world of work. In South Africa, we are feeling the influence of these trends in the economy as a whole, but also on industry and personal lev- els. Whatever our understanding of all these trends and forces might be,
there can be little doubt that the world economic architecture of today and tomorrow (as well as those factors that influence and are influenced by the changing economy) is and will be vastly different from that of a few years ago.
Demographic context
South Africa has the potential to bene- fit from a demographic dividend – the fact that the numbers of the working age population are growing faster than those of children and older people, cre- ates the potential for a demographic dividend.
Interesting trends of the South African population projections are the stagna- tion in the numbers of people aged 0 – 19 and 20 – 29, and the rapid growth in the number of people aged 30 – 59
and those older than 60. The popula- tion of South Africa is urbanising at a rapid rate:
• Nineteen million people were living in rural areas in 2014; this number is projected to decrease to 14.3 mil- lion in 2050.
• In 2014, 34.2 million people lived in urban areas, projected to increase to 49.1 million by 2050.
• Significant progress has been made in providing basic schooling to everyone in South Africa. How- ever, there are still many people with low levels of education among the population. The majority of peo- ple of working age in South Africa has completed less than 12 years of schooling.
Scenarios: The world of work in South Africa in 2030
During the course of two engage- ments, a set of scenarios was devel- oped. Twelve driving forces were iden- tified and assessed using the intuitive logics approach. The six pivotal uncer- tainties were further analysed using an impact analysis, producing the two axes for the scenario set. Groups de- veloped the details for each scenario, taking the driving forces into account.
In 2030, we are going down a cul-de- sac; a dead-end road. There are some positives (like patches of economic growth), but mostly negatives. In terms of skills development, business spent minimal money on developing people, labour focused on protecting existing jobs and did not collaborate with other parties about developing next skills. In this scenario, the social compact de- teriorates because each of the social partners are focusing on their deemed
FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
Highest level of education
Employed
Unemployed
Not economically active
TOTAL
No schooling
312
67
582
961
Less than primary
947
355
1 477
2 779
Primary completed
643
222
1 008
1 873
Secondary not completed
5 553
2 868
8 319
16 740
Secondary completed
5 410
2 102
3 321
10 833
Tertiary
3 473
482
588
4 543
Other
190
43
172
245
Graph 2: Scenarios: The world of work in South Africa in 2030
Volume 12 No.3 of 2019 | SERVICE DELIVERY REVIEW 23